C6 Population Dynamics


Topics of interest for CSE

  1. Population size, growth, composition, and distribution.
  2. Components of population growth: birth, death, migration.
  3. Population policy and family planning.
  4. Emerging issues: ageing, sex ratios, child and infant mortality, reproductive health.

DATA

Census Year
Population
Growth Rate
1951
361,088,000
-
1961
439,235,000
21.6
1971
548,160,000
24.8 PEAK DECADE
1981
683,329,000
24.7 PEAK DECADE
1991
846,387,888
23.9
2001
1,028,737,436
21.5
2011
1,210,726,932
17.7
Period
Births per year
Deaths per year
Natural change per year
CBR
CDR
NC
TFR
IMR
1995–2000
27,443,000
9,458,000
17,985,000
27.2
9.4
17.8
3.31
68.9
2000–2005
27,158,000
9,545,000
17,614,000
25.3
8.4
16.9
3.14
60.7
2005–2010
27,271,000
9,757,000
17,514,000
22.9
7.9
15.0
2.80
52.9
2010–2015
-
-
-
20.4
7.4
13.0
2.48
37.8




Crude Birth Rate (per 1000)
Crude Death Rate (per 1000)
Natural Change (per 1000)


TFR is used instead of simple birth rates as it takes into account the size of the generational group. Avoids the Malthussian trap.

MIGRATION Stats: https://www.prsindia.org/theprsblog/migration-india-and-impact-lockdown-migrants

Targets: According to SDGs now.

  1. Achieve zero growth rate of population by 2045. (estimated peak at 2047 - 1.6 Bn)
  2. Achieve universal immunization of children against all vaccine preven­table diseases. (Vaccines added for J-Encep, pneumonococcal conjugate vaccine and MR)
  3. Promote delayed marriage for girls, not before 18 and preferably after 20 years.
  4. Prevent and control communicable diseases.
  5. Universal access to information/counselling, and services for fertility regulation and contraception with a wide basket of choices.
  6. 80% institutional deliveries and 100% deliveries by trained persons. Taken up under the Janani Suraksha Yojana.
  7. Achieve 100% registration of births, marriage and pregnancy.

New Interventions under Family Planning Programme (2015 onwards)

  • Scheme for home delivery of contraceptives by ASHAs at doorstep of beneficiaries.
  • Scheme for ASHAs to ensure birth spacing. ASHAs to be incentivised for success.
  • Emphasis on Post-Partum Family Planning (PPFP) services to capitalise on the cases coming in for institutional delivery under Janani Suraksha Yojana.
  • Increasing male participation and promotion of Non Scalpel Vasectomy.

Problems:

  • ASHA workers over stretched due to added responsibilities.
  • Low ratio of ASHA workers to population they serve.
  • Patriarchal society. Difficult for ASHA workers to communicate as mostly female.

EMERGING ISSUES IN POPULATION

Demographic dividend and transition

  1. Population estimated at 1350 million people in 2020. Current TFR - 2.1
  2. UNDP: India to peak at 1.6 billion in 2047 and decline to 1 billion by 2100.
  3. Lewis Turning point. When all surplus labour has been absorbed and further increase in employment would lead to a consequent rise in wages due to supply-demand based movement.

Ageing (MAPP-SU)

  1. Aging is a biological, psychological and socio-cultural phenomenon.
  2. 700% growth in senior citizens by 2050.
  3. In 2020 India's population would be 29. US/China 37, Japan 48.
  4. India's population is rapidly ageing. The numbers of people in 60+ age group jumped from ~7 crores in 2001 to more than 10 crores in 2011.
  5. In KA, TN, and GA aged (60+) outnumber the children below 6 as per census 2011.
  6. NSS surveys report that the number of 60+ women is higher than men at 1033 women per 1000 men. Feminisation of ageing. Trend in both rural & urban areas.
  7. 70% of these women dependents. Issues about their ill treatment and exploitation.
  8. With the decline of the institution of joint family old age care (geriatrics) is increasingly becoming a lucrative field of business.

Sex Ratios (MAPP-SU)

  1. National child sex ratio has gone down from 927 to 919 from 2001 to 2011.
  2. Currently stands at 899 females /1000 males as per SRS data in 2018.
  3. Major cause of the fall in sex ratio at birth is the female foeticide/infanticide.
  4. HR showing a decreasing trend in the population of women (2011).
  5. KL and PU have positive sex ratios while TN and AP are close to a balanced sex ratio.
  6. However, all states including KL & PU have adverse child sex ratios with HR again being the lowest at 834/1000.

Child and IMR

  1. NFHS 5 data shows that under nutrition on the rise in India.
  2. Consistent decline in IMR and U5MR in India. Incremental rate of decline.
  3. Six states of India set to achieve the IMR and U5MR target of SDG4: TN, KR, MH, WB, PB, and HP.
  4. SDG target is 26 but India had an average IMR 37 with the lowest being in A&N Is at 10 and the highest being in MP at 51.
  5. Presence of several risk factors significantly associated with IMR and U5MR:
    • Low levels of maternal education (less than class 8).
    • Early childbearing (earlier than 20 yrs).
    • Inadequate birth spacing (less than 24 months).
    • Anemic pregnancies. 53% of all pregnant women anemic.
  6. Stagnation of early neonatal mortality in most of the states highlights the importance of improving quality of perinatal care for improving child survival.
  7. Eco Survey: Developmental support at birth has most impact on better future development.
  8. ICDS, MDM scheme should be strengthened.

Fertility Rates

  1. Mission Parivar Vikas launched in 145 High Focus districts for improved family planning services with focus on 7 states with highest TFR, to reach the replacement level fertility goals of 2.1 by 2025.
  2. The TFR in some states like GA and WB has fallen to nearly European levels.
  3. BH, RJ and UP (30 per cent of India’s population) are responsible for most growth.
  4. New Interventions under Family Planning Programme (2015 onwards)
    • Scheme for home delivery of contraceptives by ASHAs.
    • Scheme for ASHAs to ensure birht spacing. ASHAs to be incentivised.
    • Emphasis on Post-Partum Family Planning (PPFP) services to capitalise on the huge cases coming in for institutional delivery under Janani Suraksha Yojana.
    • Increasing male participation and promotion of Non Scalpel Vasectomy.

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